Judul : Focus: No Quick Fix for China-Japan Tension, Tokyo Seeks Calm Strategy
link : Focus: No Quick Fix for China-Japan Tension, Tokyo Seeks Calm Strategy
Focus: No Quick Fix for China-Japan Tension, Tokyo Seeks Calm Strategy
BEIJING - A growing diplomatic conflict between China and Japan, triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments regarding Taiwan, is likely to require time to resolve, as specialists emphasize the importance of Tokyo adopting a composed strategy in striving to comprehend its stance.
The sudden significant decline in relations between the two countries has started to impact personnel exchanges and numerous Japanese sectors, such as tourism, commerce, education, and entertainment, as China increases its pressure on Japan.
Some academics suggested that Takaichi should refrain from actions that might be seen as "additional provocations" by Beijing, maintain open lines of communication with China, and clearly articulate Tokyo's position both within the country and on the global stage to ease hostilities.
Naoko Eto, a political science professor at Gakushuin University and an authority on Japan-China relations, mentioned that resolving the current diplomatic dispute could take over a year, comparing the present state of affairs to the two Asian neighbors "playing chicken."
The conflict arises from Takaichi's speech on November 7 in the parliament, where she suggested that a military strike against Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island that Beijing considers part of its territory, could create a "threat to survival" for Japan and might lead to the involvement of its Self-Defense Forces.
Beijing has consistently asked the Japanese leader to withdraw her comments made in parliament, yet Tokyo has declined, stating that their statements align with previous government positions.
Takaichi has stated that she will stop sharing her opinions influenced by "specific circumstances" and will not present her comments as "the official stance of the government."
China is expected to maintain pressure on Japan, but Takaichi is not anticipated to "step back," as her government, which was established in late October, enjoys a relatively high level of public approval, according to Eto.
"If a prime minister suggests that Japan would react with military force in the event of a Taiwan crisis, that represents a significant change," noted Jeff Kingston, a professor at Temple University in Tokyo.
Experts claim that Japanese government representatives have rarely been so explicit regarding the delicate issue involving Beijing, which seeks to incorporate Taiwan into its territory, by force if required.
Takaichi, who is recognized for her strong stance on China and support for maintaining good relations with Taiwan, "was fully aware of her actions" and showcased her "firm opinions and readiness to confront China," he further stated.
Kingston cautioned that Beijing's strict reactions, such as a travel advisory advising its citizens against visiting Japan, "might lead to serious economic impacts on an economy already struggling and weakened" by tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
If neither party steps back, it will negatively impact both economies, but Xi (Jinping) doesn't have to face an election," he stated. "At some point, Beijing could offer her a way to withdraw from her stance, but I believe they intend to cause some hardship before doing so.
Eto from Gakushuin noted that Japan "undoubtedly has fewer negotiation advantages" compared to China in handling the dispute, and that Takaichi might be "forced into a difficult position and required to apologize" for her comments, unless she withdraws them.
Tokyo, in turn, could reference a recent social media update from Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, which contained the statement "cut a dirty neck without a moment of hesitation," an intentional threat that is inappropriate for a diplomat, according to Eto, when responding to Beijing's criticism of her.
The post that has since been removed has sparked a protest from Japan and criticism from the United States and Taiwan. A committee within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, headed by Takaichi, has called on the government to take decisive measures, such as designating Xue as persona non grata and potentially expelling him.
Japan might also seek backing from its security partner, the United States, and other nations, but Eto mentioned that it could still be insufficient to settle the wide-ranging conflict, as Beijing has implemented various actions, including reinstating the ban on Japanese seafood imports.
On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass criticized China's strong reaction as "a typical example of Chinese economic pressure" and voiced backing for Tokyo.
Shin Kawashima, a professor at the University of Tokyo, said that while China is again shifting blame onto Japan for "altering the status quo," as it did in 2012 after Tokyo purchased the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea from their private owner, its current responses appear somewhat restrained. China claims the islands and calls them Diaoyu.
Unlike the widespread anti-Japanese protests that took place throughout China in 2012, the present response has been restricted to actions at the governmental level.
In contrast to 2022, when Beijing conducted extensive military exercises and cyberattacks on Taiwan following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island—the first such trip in 25 years—it has not yet engaged in comparable actions against Japan, he pointed out.
Kawashima mentioned that China responded strongly to Takaichi's remarks, as it had concerns about the close relationship between the Japanese prime minister and Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing views as a separatist. Prior to becoming prime minister, Takaichi traveled to the island in April and met with Lai.
"China views Japan and the United States as backers of the Lai administration, with Takaichi being one of its key pillars," he stated.
Beijing raised an objection to Tokyo after Takaichi met with a Taiwanese representative during a recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum meeting in South Korea. Nevertheless, China did not take such action when her predecessors had similar meetings with Taiwanese representatives.
The strong response suggested that China was "especially sensitive" to Takaichi's stance on Taiwan, he mentioned.
A professor from the University of Tokyo cautioned about China's "misinformation" strategies, where its media deliberately refrain from referencing U.S. forces, despite Japan's right to collective self-defense being applicable solely in support of the United States.
He stated that the omission creates a misleading notion that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Taiwanese military would cooperate in responding to an invasion from the mainland.
Japan's security laws permit the nation to invoke the right of collective self-defense in a "situation that threatens survival."
Takaichi's statements in parliament were interpreted as implying that the government might permit the Self-Defense Forces to assist the United States in case China attacks Taiwan.
Kawashima emphasized that Japan must enhance its communication approach via social media and additional platforms to promote its viewpoints within the global arena.
"Otherwise, China would argue that it is Japan that has altered the existing situation. If Japan does not provide a clear explanation, it will end up taking full responsibility," he stated.
(Hiroki Noda from Tokyo contributed to this story.)
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